Food expenditure for a family of four is projected to reach $16,833.67 in 2025, with an overall price increase of 3-5%. Beef prices are on the rise and are expected to remain high for the next 2-3 years due to a shrinking Canadian beef herd. At the same time, seafood prices are predicted to have minor increases. Machine learning and AI models, along with expert knowledge, are used to forecast these price changes. The report also considers factors like climate events, exchange and interest rates, labour issues, and new policies as potential drivers of price increases. Canadians are becoming more price-aware and using various strategies like coupons and loyalty programs to lower grocery bills. Roughly half of Canadians choose food primarily for affordability, and more are turning to food banks. Kristina Kupferschmidt highlights that people are having to make hard decisions based on the current economic climate. The report provides valuable insights into the Canadian food market and its future trends.

Uncover the Future of Canadian Food Prices

Section 1: Family Food Expenditure

A family of four can anticipate a significant increase in their annual food expenditure. In 2025, they are expected to pay up to $801.56 more. This projection is based on the 15th edition of Canada's Food Price Report, which predicts an overall price increase of 3-5%. The report, produced by Dalhousie University, University of Guelph, University of Saskatchewan, and University of British Columbia, provides a detailed analysis of the food market. It takes into account various factors such as meat prices, which are expected to experience the highest increases at 4-6%. Vegetables and restaurants are also likely to see price hikes of 3-5%, while bakery and dairy will have a 2-4% increase and fruit and seafood will see a 1-3% rise. This data gives a clear picture of the changing food landscape for Canadian families.

Section 2: Beef and Seafood Prices

Beef prices have increased by 9.2% from 2023 to 2024 and are expected to remain elevated for the next 2-3 years. The Canadian beef herd is the smallest it has been since the 1980s due to multiple years of drought and reduced pasture and forage production. Farmers are reducing herd sizes as they lack the capacity to carry their full herds. On the other hand, seafood prices are predicted to have minor increases. Stuart Smyth, an agricultural professor at the University of Saskatchewan and the report's campus lead, suggests that people may dine out less often at higher-end restaurants due to rising prices. In some regions, like Quebec and the Maritimes, food inflation rates are likely to be above the national average. This shows the regional differences in food price trends.

Section 3: Consumer Behaviour and Strategies

Canadians have become more price-aware and are using various strategies to lower grocery bills. Roughly half (48.2%) seek sales and discounts on groceries. Others switch brands, shop at cheaper stores, and forgo non-essential food items. Kristina Kupferschmidt highlights that people are having to make hard decisions based on the current economic climate. Janet Music, the AAL research program coordinator, emphasizes the importance of traditional practices like eating what you buy and buying what you eat. With GDP per capita dropping for the sixth consecutive quarter, more stores are turning into discount stores. Loyalty programs are also an effective way to save money. HungerCount shows that more Canadians are turning to food banks, and the Canadian Food Sentiment Index reveals that nearly half (46%) of Generation Z draw on savings or borrow money to buy food. This indicates the impact of the economic situation on consumer behaviour.

Section 4: Factors Affecting Food Prices

The researchers consider several factors as potential drivers of price increases in 2025. Climate events such as drought, exchange and interest rates, labour issues like a shortage of truck drivers, new policies like changes to the temporary foreign worker program, and the "Trump factor" all play a role. These factors have a significant impact on the food market and contribute to the overall price fluctuations. Understanding these factors is crucial for businesses and consumers alike to make informed decisions.

Section 5: Future Outlook and Recommendations

The report provides a valuable outlook on the future of the Canadian food market. It highlights the need for consumers to be aware of price trends and use strategies to manage their food budgets. Businesses also need to adapt to these changes and find ways to offer affordable and quality food. The collaboration between universities and the use of advanced technologies like machine learning and AI models help in providing more accurate forecasts. As the food market continues to evolve, it is essential to stay informed and take appropriate actions. By doing so, we can better navigate the challenges and opportunities in the food industry.