Market Rebounds Fade as Fed's Rate Cut Outlook Dims

Dec 19, 2024 at 9:29 PM

On Thursday, an initial rally in U.S. stocks fizzled out by the close of trading, resulting in a near-flat market performance. The S&P 500 saw a marginal decline of 0.1%, following a significant drop of 2.9% on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve indicated it might reduce interest rate cuts next year. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average barely edged up, while the Nasdaq composite slipped slightly. Economic data showed mixed signals, with some reports suggesting a robust economy and others pointing to potential challenges in manufacturing.

Fed's Revised Rate Policy Weighs on Market Sentiment

The Federal Reserve's recent announcement about fewer expected interest rate cuts has dampened market enthusiasm. Traders now anticipate only one or two cuts next year, down from earlier expectations. This shift has led to volatility, especially for companies like Micron Technology and Lamb Weston, which faced substantial losses despite some positive earnings reports. Conversely, firms such as Darden Restaurants and Accenture reported strong performances, boosting investor confidence in certain sectors.

The Federal Reserve's revised stance on interest rates has significantly influenced market dynamics. Initially, traders had anticipated at least two rate cuts in 2025, but now many are reconsidering their positions. This change has affected various sectors differently. For instance, Micron Technology experienced a sharp decline of 16.2% due to weaker revenue forecasts and concerns over consumer demand. Similarly, Lamb Weston fell by 20.1% after missing profit and revenue targets and cutting its financial outlook. These setbacks overshadowed positive news from companies like Darden Restaurants, which saw a 14.7% jump in shares following better-than-expected quarterly profits. Accenture also performed well, rising 7.1% after exceeding profit expectations and raising its revenue forecast for the fiscal year. The mixed reactions highlight the market's sensitivity to both macroeconomic indicators and company-specific factors.

Economic Indicators Show Mixed Signals

Mixed economic reports have added complexity to the market outlook. While some indicators point to a resilient economy, others suggest potential challenges, particularly in manufacturing. Treasury yields fluctuated, reflecting uncertainty about future monetary policy. Despite these mixed signals, the overall market remains near record highs, with the S&P 500 on track for one of its best years since the millennium.

Economic data released on Thursday painted a varied picture. One report revealed that the U.S. economy grew at a faster-than-expected annualized rate of 3.1% during the summer, underscoring its resilience despite high interest rates. However, another report indicated that manufacturing in the mid-Atlantic region was unexpectedly contracting, contrary to economists' predictions. In the bond market, longer-term yields rose, putting pressure on the housing sector by keeping mortgage rates elevated. Homebuilder Lennar fell 5.2% after reporting weaker-than-expected results, citing affordability issues due to higher interest rates. On a more positive note, sales of previously owned homes showed signs of improvement, potentially offering some relief to the housing industry. Overall, the day's trading reflected ongoing uncertainties and mixed economic signals, leaving investors cautious yet hopeful.