In the opening months of 2025, Russia's federal budget has encountered a substantial shortfall. The deficit for January and February reached RUB 3.8 trillion (approximately US$44.7 billion), exceeding the Finance Ministry’s prior projection of RUB 2.7 trillion (US$31.7 billion). This development highlights discrepancies between estimated and actual financial performance during this period.

During the first two months of 2025, according to official reports from the Federal Treasury, revenues amounted to RUB 3.9 trillion (US$45.9 billion). However, this figure falls short of the Finance Ministry’s earlier forecast of RUB 5.3 trillion (US$62.3 billion). Meanwhile, expenditures climbed to RUB 7.76 trillion (US$91.3 billion), slightly under the projected RUB 8 trillion (US$94.1 billion). These figures underscore the challenges faced by Russian fiscal policy makers as they navigate complex economic conditions.

A key factor contributing to these disparities lies in differences between reported revenue streams. Specifically, the Treasury documented over RUB 1 trillion (US$11.7 billion) less in receipts than what was anticipated by the Finance Ministry. An explanation offered involves timing issues related to tax payments processed near month-end deadlines. Payments intended for March were inadvertently included within February projections due to administrative delays.

This situation arises against a backdrop of ongoing reductions in Russian natural gas production. With European transits through Ukraine halted, domestic energy output continues its downward trend, further complicating efforts to stabilize national finances amidst broader geopolitical tensions.

The growing gap between expected and realized budgetary outcomes reflects deeper structural issues impacting Russia's economy. As policymakers adjust strategies to address these imbalances, maintaining transparency and accuracy in reporting remains crucial for restoring public confidence and ensuring sustainable long-term growth.