On the Sunday before Thanksgiving, a grocery store in Rochester, Minnesota found itself completely out of eggs. Just an hour and a half north in Richfield, eggs were available but came with a hefty price tag. That dozen cost $1.70 more than it did just four months ago, a significant 40% increase. According to Consumer Price Index data released last week, egg prices shot up by 8.2% nationwide in November, marking one of the highest monthly spikes in the past two decades. And it's not just eggs; shoppers have witnessed jumps in beef, coffee, and non-alcoholic beverages, causing overall grocery prices to experience their largest monthly gain since January 2023.

Economists' Perspective: Not a Systemic Issue

Economists emphasize that the "egg-flation" and sudden price hikes in some major food categories are isolated incidents and not a sign of a reacceleration of inflation. Gregory Daco, EY Parthenon's chief economist, stated that overall grocery price inflation is relatively tame and in line with pre-pandemic levels. However, prices remain significantly higher compared to before the pandemic.

Weather and Disease: Impact on Egg Prices

A bird flu outbreak is ravaging flocks across the country, reducing the supply of eggs at a time when Americans are in festive moods and indulging in more baking, cooking, and dining out. The USDA further revised down US egg supply estimates and raised price forecasts for 2025. This has led to a 37.5% annual increase in egg prices.

Even before "inflation" became a household word, food prices have always been subject to fluctuations due to various factors such as weather events, crop yields, disease, war, supply chain snarls, and spikes in demand. And eggs are not alone in experiencing these price hikes. Beef prices have also seen an annual increase of 5%. The US cattle inventory is at the lowest level in more than 70 years due to drought and other rising costs, and the contraction is expected to continue through 2025. Orange juice prices are also on the rise. Frozen non-carbonated juices have seen an annual increase of 17.2%, while fresh juices have increased by 3.1%. Brazil, which supplies about 30% of America's imported OJ, had its worst harvest in decades due to flooding, drought, and citrus greening disease. And coffee prices, which are the second-most consumed beverage in the US, have increased by 1.9% annually. The same weather events that are affecting Brazil's citrus production are also negatively impacting coffee production. Arabica coffee beans, which make up the majority of global coffee bean production, sold for a record high of $3.44 per pound last week. The future outlook for coffee lovers is not promising as climate change is getting worse, leading to more severe weather and rising temperatures that directly affect the people working in coffee plantations, making coffee more expensive for consumers.

Chocolate: A Sweet Story with Costly Consequences

During the past three years, a series of adverse weather events have hit the cocoa-producing regions of West Africa, which is responsible for over 70% of global cocoa supply. Candy-makers have responded by shrinking the size of their products, modifying recipes, and focusing more on non-chocolate offerings. Bank of America economists wrote in a note last week that cocoa costs, which could remain elevated into 2026, are stress-testing the confections industry on multiple levels.

Although parts of the food industry are seeing cost increases due to specific reasons, these price spikes are hitting consumers differently these days, especially when they occur simultaneously. Through November, grocery prices were up 1.6% from the previous year. While the annual rate is trending below overall inflation, which accelerated to 2.7% last month, it is still higher than the average seen during 2008-2019. The annual rate of grocery price inflation is the highest since this time last year, but it is a far cry from 2022 when it averaged 11.4% and peaked at 13.5%. This breakneck pace has resulted in grocery prices being 27% higher now than they were in February 2020. Some categories have been hit harder than others; eggs are up 81% in the past four years, margarine is up 55%, beef and veal are up 37%, and juices are up 32%.

Consumers' Adaptation: Absorbing the Costs

It's nearly impossible to avoid rising food prices, so consumers and businesses have had to adapt. Vidlak's Brookside Cafe in Omaha, Nebraska, has been serving breakfast and lunch for 28 years but is facing rising costs of critical ingredients. Founder Roger Vidlak is doing everything he can to not pass these costs on to customers. Six months ago, a case of eggs cost $18 to $20, but now it has risen to $75 for a 15-dozen case. However, he has found some workarounds. In addition to staying on top of weekly price checks, he has turned to cage-free eggs, which have been less impacted by the avian flu and are cheaper. He has also started using liquid egg mixes. Vidlak has not raised his prices for about six months and is absorbing the costs himself. He doesn't want to negatively affect his customers, as he has hundreds of repeat customers who come in every day. He understands the need to make money but doesn't want to do it all at once.

CNN's Erika Tulfo contributed to this report.